Fairfax Sales Analysis: Seasonality

Real estate in Fairfax County continues to climb in median value in spite of mortgage rates higher than seven percent. For August 2023 median home sales price month-over-month increased 1.71% although median price per square foot declined -0.16%.

Prices fluctuate throughout the year in a clear seasonal pattern. seasonal decomposition using LOESS in Python separates trend from seasonality. On the chart below, one can see the average trough is 6.28% below the trend and troughs tend to occur in Jan-Feb. The average peak is 6.58% from the trend and peaks tend to occur in Jun-July. A home seller can recoup realtor fees by listing in the spring for summer sales.